Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two respected writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept losing and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two essays that strive for neutrality in laying out the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, assembling economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the notion that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually lose but all factions has has important lessons to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
